The Opening Line.

Every Sunday evening during football season, usually around 5:30 or so, the sportsbook at the Stardust Casino puts up the first lines for the following week's games. These numbers are hung by experts who have every resource available to them in order to make a line that limits their liability and maximizes their profit making opportunities. These are virgin numbers, untainted by the public's hand, and they are a thing of beauty. Every game I handicap is influenced by these virgin numbers - within them lie one of the greatest secrets of sportsbetting.

With the success of offshore sportsbooks, the Stardust no longer offers the first lines available. In fact, for most sports (exception: football) there is an "Overnight Line", prepared for the morning newspapers, such as the Glantz-Culver line or the Sheridan line in USA Today. These lines are based primarily on power ratings - computerized calculations of teams relative current strengths. They serve as an estimate of around where the line should open, but are not an accurate predictor of where the line actually will open, and as such, I do not consider these lines in my handicapping.

In the past few years, the next lines to come out have been the offshores, with CRIS (Costa Rican International Sports) leading the way. These lines come out just as the late afternoon games are finishing on Sunday nights for football, and by the time the West Coast games are finishing in basketball. I watch where these lines open, and how they move ONLY in relation to the Stardust line. The 'Dust sees these early numbers, and if they set their virgin numbers in a way that contrasts with the offshore early moves, that is important!! Other Vegas casinos have also begun setting lines before the Stardust, most notably the Imperial Palace and the MGM, but again, I place relatively little emphasis on these sets of lines.

Футбол хоккей гольф теннис баскетбол скачки гандбол бейсбол американский футбол формула 1 на
Сделай 5 ставок по 30 Евро в любой валюте и получи на свой счет 50 Евро!
По 25 Евро на Ваш счет каждый месяц если Вы сделали ставок более 300 Евро в месяц.

За Вашу первую ставку Вы ГАРАНТИРОВАНО получите один из этих призов.
Сумма первой ставки должны быть не менее 50 Евро.
ТОЛЬКО при переходе с нашего сайта и мгновенной регистрации Вы получите бонусные деньги и подарки.
Жми на баннер bwin - сразу регистрируйся.
футбол football betway ставка на футбол
players bettson bwin goplay iasbet
As a Partner of bwin you will always be holding a good hand. We will be offering an attractive $200 Poker Bonus. Click the banner and registered!
Играйте в покер и получайте призы и денежные бонусы - 200 Долларов!!! Жми на баннер и сразу регистрируйся.

We will be offering an attractive $200 Casino Bonus. Click the banner and registered!
Играйте в казино и получайте призы и денежные бонусы - 200 Долларов!!! Жми на баннер и сразу регистрируйся.

When the Stardust hangs their opening numbers, we are viewing Joe Lupo (the sportsbook director) and his staff's opinion. Conventional wisdom posits that lines are set to create equal action on both sides, thus ensuring a small profit for the books (4.54% or $10 on every $220 wagered). In reality, this does not happen more often than not. Thus equal action is mostly a myth. In fact, there are several other possibilities besides equal action that the books are trying to achieve with their opening numbers (all examples used relate to football). Book wants to limit action on the game - opening number makes it virtually unbettable for either side. For example, two low scoring teams outdoors in November and the total opens at 33 - no way to take the over, but the under is too low to take either.

Book feels that this is a game that they can win money - line is positioned to draw one way action - the wrong way (also called a 'trap' line). For example, the Jan 1, 2000 Cotton Bowl, where Texas opened a 6.5 point favorite over Arkansas, and was bet up to -8 (extreme one way action) resulted in a 21 point outright win for the underdog.

Book unsure which way the line is going to move, so they set a line where their potential liability is minimized. For example, a line set at -5 can move a full point in either direction without serious danger of running into a key number (football games finish with a 4 or 6 point differential much more often than they do on 5)

As a handicapper, I must respect the guy I'm trying to beat - the bookmaker. I must know my enemy and try to think as he thinks. These people are experts with many years of experience making a profit for their employers (those that fail to make a profit become ex-linesmakers fairly quickly). No one has access to more information than these individuals. They know what teams the money is coming in on every game, and which teams are not taking much money at all. They know which injuries will affect the game's result and who can be replaced by a capable backup. They certainly recognize the fundamental and situational aspects of handicapping - things like run defense and revenge matchups. In short, we must use their knowledge to our advantage if we have any intention of winning more bets than we lose.

[ Букмекерская контора Bwin ]
[ Main Page Главная страница. ]
[ What Are Biorhythms? ]
[ NFL Playoff Observation. ]
[ Assessing Handicapping. ]
[ Betting the Money Line. ]
[ True Odds Parlays. ]
[ How To Handicap Football. ]
[ Cooking up the odds. ]
[ The Opening Line. ]
[ Keep Accurate Records or Lie to Yourself. ]
[ Line Movement ]
[ The Power of the Home Dog. ]
[ How Weather Affects Baseball. ]

[ Money Management –The Amateur's Downfall. ]
[ A Few Key Words. ]
[ Brief history of sports betting. ]
[ Making the first bet or 1x2. ]
[ More complicated kinds of bets (handicap, total).]
[ Value betting. ]
[ Financial strategies. ]
[ Online bookmakers. ]
[ Analyzing soccer matches. ]
[ Analyzing basketball matches. ]
[ Analyzing tennis matches. ]
[ Different odds formats. ]
[ Risk-free bets (arbitrage, scalping) - myth or reality? ]
[ Mathematics and betting. ]
[ Is it worth subscribing to paid sports advice services? ]
[ Football Handicapping Management. ]
[ Shop til' you drop: Beating the number. ]
[ Are you shopping lines? If not, your NUTS! ]
[ How to win at sports betting. ]
[ Take the Points for Crying Out Loud. ]
[ Know Your Percentages. ]
[ The F-T-S of Handicapping. ]
[ Baseball is pure profit for those who would play it!. ]
[ Betting Baseball Underdogs. ]
[ Going Against Public Teams Can Be Winning Strategy. ]

[ Handicapping Injuries In The NFL. ]
[ Betting football teasers article. ]
[ Betting Baseball Totals. ]
[ A Brief Primer on Halftime Betting. ]
[ Tips for Betting Preseason Football. ]
[ Looking for Value. ]
[ Why Lines Open Exactly Where They Do. ]
[ Use The Half Time Lines . ]
[ NBA and MLB Parlay Betting. ]
[ Why Betting with the Offshore Sportsbooks Has Its Advantages. ]

Design [ Tigra ] .2007

Rambler's Top100