Baseball season is here and in early season baseball there are many valuable underdogs. Baseball is different from most other popular sports because the vast majority of wagering is based on money lines. "moneyline" wagering means the odds are fixed on a $100 betting unit. For example, if a team is listed as a -$180 favorite, that means you must lay $180 to win back $100 in profit. Conversely, if a team is listed as a +$160 underdog. That means you bet $100, you win back $160 profit if the dog wins.
In baseball betting, it's not necessary to pick more winners than losers in order to make a profit. That might sound strange, but truth is, paying attention to moneyline prices and identifying line values is much more important in baseball handicapping. For instance, let's say you play two underdogs both listed at +$140. Even if you split, with one win and one loss, your net result will be a profit of $40. It's conceivable that a baseball bettor could pick more losers then winners, but still make money (by picking underdogs)
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However, lets say you bet on two favorites listed at -$150. If you split with one win and one loss, your net result would be a loss of $50. It's conceivable that a baseball bettor could pick more winners than losers, but still lose money (by picking too many favorites) Generally as a rule I rarely bet favorites and when I do I never lay more then -140. There are several reasons you should seek out the dogs, especially in the early season. The start of the season everyone starts out in first place. All teams start out with a lot of enthusiasm. All are motivated to win. This generally favors the weaker teams, getting the moneyline bonus as underdogs. Most teams are healthy. So injuries are not yet a factor, at least until later in the season. If two healthy teams are playing, the team getting the value (the dog) deserves a look.
Pitching staffs are fresh. Starters have not worked more then four to five innings per start in spring training. Fresh starters and bullpens that are moneyline underdogs are often the better value since any major league pitcher is capable of shutting down an opponent and pitching a good game. Home teams enjoy less of an advantage in baseball then any other sport. This is especially true of early season games, since the surroundings are "new" for both teams, following two months of spring training in Florida or Arizona.
Lines are based on old information, including last years results. As we know from history, teams can and do change from one year to the next. With dogs we get back a bonus (better then even money payoff) on many games that are very close to being a toss up. Going against teams like the yanks who will be 2-1 favorite or more almost every day is one thing I will be doing. Especially out of the gate when public money will be pouring in on them. I have done very well over the years taking back +200 or more betting against big name pitchers like Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, and my number one bet against man Roger Clemons. Having a lot of different options where to play is always a must. I really feel I have so many outs (places to bet) I can play baseball with virtually no juice throughout the year. Keep a close eye on the underdog prices at books like Bodog and Vwager and you will be very happy with the nice value the have. Good luck!
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[ The F-T-S of Handicapping. ]
[ Baseball is pure profit for those who would play it!. ]
[ Betting Baseball Underdogs. ]
[ Going Against Public Teams Can Be Winning Strategy. ]
[ Handicapping Injuries In The NFL. ]
[ Betting football teasers article. ]
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[ A Brief Primer on Halftime Betting. ]
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[ Use The Half Time Lines . ]
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