Analyzing basketball matches.



I wrote this chapter together with my friend, professional basketball handicapper GOTVINSANITY.

So, basketball is very good to bet on and here's why: 1. A lot of games in season 2. It is comparatively easy to analyze statistically 3. It's easier to analyze duels and players' positions during the match as there are only 5 players on the playground. In soccer absense of 1-2 players won't considerably change the style and strength of the team, while in basketball such losses may predetermine the result of the game. 4. In basketball, unlike soccer, one lucky shot won't affect the result of the game, as a rule it's the team that deserves it that wins.

Basketball betting strategies

I consider flat and bank percentage the best strategies. If I have several bets on 1 day, I try to bet equal sums of money on each one, because I wasn't very successful at selecting the most sure pick. Though it may be different in each case.

Information

It'd be nice to know at least basics of basketball - positions and functions of the players. For those who know it, information on injuries, transfers and team tactics is of great value. One can get this information from mass media, official websites and viewing the matches themselves.

Refereeing



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Referees can really affect the game, especially in Europe. In NBA they aren't that powerful. Different referees have different style, some allow hard tackles, some on the opposite whistle very often. In Europe many referees favour home teams, but again, it's all up to the exact person, it's not a decisive factor, but it should be taken into consideration.

Line-up changes

It's definitely worth while paying attention to such changes as they may well affect team tactics for the game.

Motivation

Everyone's motivation is usually at the top, everyone wants to win, especially in Europe. In NBA some teams just give away games when they feel tired and have no motivation. During European or World championships one should have a look at the tournament tables. It may turn out that a team has already got into the next stage and they needn't really to fight, of course, their motivation won't be as high.

Championships to bet on

It's all up to you, the more you know the championship, the more logical it would be to bet on it. For GOTVINSANITY, for example, ULEB Euroleague has been the most successful tournament during past years and French championship - the most unpredictable, with 3-4 teams that regularly win with over 30 points difference. Along with Russian, it's the most unbalanced championship so far as the team level is concerned.

Home advantage in basketball

There's definitely such thing in basketball, but I don't think it's more important than, say, in soccer. There are, of course, some teams that rarely lose at home, in NBA it's San Antonio, in Europe - Taugres, Panatinaikos with home attendance of more than 15,000. You may imagine how the visiting team feel.

Match statistics

One can talk about it for a long time or one may write a thesis :) I'll try to put it in brief. Quantity of 3pts may mean that the team has some problems in defence at the 3 point line (???), that they have good attacking players (as a rule if teams tries many 3pts they are quicker than their opponent and prefer a faster pace of the game with many throws and fast attacks and they usually use zone defence).

Speaking of rebounds, there's such a rule - who wins rebounds, wins the match. Though it may be arguable.

Turnovers. It's the main factor of defeat - the team that makes more turnovers almost always loses. It's easily explained: teams that are faster and not so tall have better defence, though they don't always win rebounds because they use zone defence.

Live betting on basketball

If you can read the game well and you can watch a live broadcast, live betting is well justified and profitable. There's another interesting strategy in basketball live betting: bookmakers rarely make mistakes, especially in the USA, and if we see that the team that according to bookmakers should have won the match with the difference of 10 points is actually 10 points down halfway through the match, it makes sense betting on this team already with positive handicap (say, +5) and wait for comeback, which is really a frequent occasion in basketball.



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