Analyzing soccer matches.



First of all I should say I have never analyzed soccer, and so, never bet on it. But I couldn't just leave it out, so I turned to excellent bettors who have actually proved their competence. Huge thanks go to mel, i, MadNessT for helping me with this chapter. Credits are given, it's ok now to get to business. Soccer is a game loved by millions of people around the world, and likewise millions of bets are made on this kind of sport. And, unlike tennis, or, say, basketball, the soccer line is rich with different types of bets. Few people will argue the fact that it's hard to analyze soccer. One accidentally conceded goal or not converted penalty may turn our to be crucial. Soccer is one of few kinds of sport where a team can be totally dominating the game full 90 minutes and still lose (which is almost impossible in basketball and tennis). So, soccer is hard to analyze, but hard means possible, and the above mentioned people proved it.


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Here are a few things that will help you to become more successful in soccer betting. Betting maximum on 4 championships. Most beginners bet on all championships in the line. This is a big mistake, a guaranteed way towards regular losses. In real life people have 1, maximum 2 jobs; should they get a 3rd one, the quality of their work will drop and they'll be fired from all 3 places. The same will happen in soccer betting. You can make quality bets on 3-4 championships, or on 25, but having only some superficial knowledge.

In the first case you'll be able to win money on a regular basis, get a reputation of a specialist on chosen championships, to exchange tips with other specialists.

In the second case you'll be one of many people who regularly leave part of their salary at a bookmaker.

Championship analysis

After choosing a championship you should understand what you have actually chosen. To do this you should study past few years of this championship, understand what it lives with.

You should feel its specific features, style of each team, abilities of players and coaches.

So, for example, in Turkey the Black Sea coast teams (Trabzonspor, Rizespor, Sebatspor, Samsunspor) tend to be friends while teams from Istanbul (Besiktas, Galatasaray, Fenerbahce) are enemies. Rich sponsors also may change the situation considerably.

Prematch analysis

Knowing the championship situation it'll be much easier for you to do the prematch analysis.

It's great if you have an opportunity to use match previews from an independent source. Infomation on injuries, suspensions, team spirit - all this should be included into prematch analysis. Though information on leave it out, so I turned to is only helpful in case you know the functions these players perform in the team and if there are suitable substiutes on the bench. An excellent source of such information are fan forums.

Analyzing lines of local bookmakers

If you're analyzing English Premiership or Bundesliga there will be little use in this - these championships are too well-covered. But if you specialize, for example, in the second division of Norway, you must definitely consult Norwegian bookmakers, they are supposed to know more about their native championship than overseas bookmakers.

Statistical analysis

At this type of analysis we are not interested in the team mood, their line-up and how long the celebrations continued last night. The main thing here is searching and analyzing regularities in the results of the championship.

Here's what can be used in such analysis:

-current team form

We should look how and against whom the team played in the last, say, 5 games and make a conclusion if the team is striking form, is in top form or if it's losing form.

-head to head

Here we look how the teams played in the past, though very old matches shouldn't be taken into account, 2 years is enough.

-trends

analysis of past matches may reveal some regularities. If one of the teams has some current trend (e.g. 3 wins in a row, or 4 matches in a row without scoring) it makes sense looking how these trends ended in the past.

In my software BetAssistant I paid a lot of attention to trends, though other tools are present there as well.



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