Букмекерская контора Bwin, Bwin Baseball season is here and in early season baseball there are many valuable underdogs
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Baseball season is here and in early season baseball there are many valuable underdogs. Baseball is different from most other popular sports because the vast majority of wagering is based on money lines. "moneyline" wagering means the odds are fixed on a $100 betting unit. For example, if a team is listed as a -$180 favorite, that means you must lay $180 to win back $100 in profit. Conversely, if a team is listed as a +$160 underdog. That means you bet $100, you win back $160 profit if the dog wins. In baseball betting, it's not necessary to pick more winners than losers in order to make a profit. That might sound strange, but truth is, paying attention to moneyline prices and identifying line values is much more important in baseball handicapping. For instance, let's say you play two underdogs both listed at +$140. Even if you split, with one win and one loss, your net result will be a profit of $40. It's conceivable that a baseball bettor could pick more losers then winners, but still make money (by picking underdogs) However, lets say you bet on two favorites listed at -$150. If you split with one win and one loss, your net result would be a loss of $50. It's conceivable that a baseball bettor could pick more winners than losers, but still lose money (by picking too many favorites) Generally as a rule I rarely bet favorites and when I do I never lay more then -140. There are several reasons you should seek out the dogs, especially in the early season. The start of the season everyone starts out in first place. All teams start out with a lot of enthusiasm. All are motivated to win. This generally favors the weaker teams, getting the moneyline bonus as underdogs. Most teams are healthy. So injuries are not yet a factor, at least until later in the season. If two healthy teams are playing, the team getting the value (the dog) deserves a look. Pitching staffs are fresh. Starters have not worked more then four to five innings per start in spring training. Fresh starters and bullpens that are moneyline underdogs are often the better value since any major league pitcher is capable of shutting down an opponent and pitching a good game. Home teams enjoy less of an advantage in baseball then any other sport. This is especially true of early season games, since the surroundings are "new" for both teams, following two months of spring training in Florida or Arizona. Lines are based on old information, including last years results. As we know from history, teams can and do change from one year to the next. With dogs we get back a bonus (better then even money payoff) on many games that are very close to being a toss up. Going against teams like the yanks who will be 2-1 favorite or more almost every day is one thing I will be doing. Especially out of the gate when public money will be pouring in on them. I have done very well over the years taking back +200 or more betting against big name pitchers like Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, and my number one bet against man Roger Clemons. Having a lot of different options where to play is always a must. I really feel I have so many outs (places to bet) I can play baseball with virtually no juice throughout the year. Keep a close eye on the underdog prices at books like Bodog and Vwager and you will be very happy with the nice value the have. Good luck!

It seems like all we are waiting for now is the traditional coin flip; and we all know that seems like it takes forever. Football season is indeed just around the corner and while some have been preparing for months already, others are just waiting for the outs to post lines so they can take a quick look at what they like and risk a few dollars. Whatever your motivation, whether you play for the recreation, you seriously try to make a few extra bucks or you are the few that play for a living, there is one thing that is common to all that step onto the football handicapping field. "The game is Chess, Not Checkers" What does this mean? In short, no matter what your motivation for gambling on football is, you want to enjoy the entire season. From the first preseason game, to the bowl games, through Super Bowl weekend, nothing could be worse then having an empty bankroll come October. As children growing up, most of us were quickly able to learn how to play checkers. It was quick, exciting, and fast paced. Few however, took the time, had the patience or desire to play the snail paced, strategic game of chess. It seemed daunting, un-rewarding and often times not exciting at all. If we think of gambling in this context we quickly realize that most handicap and gamble the "checkers" way as opposed to the "chess" way. The excitement that opening weekend brings is unmatched year in and year out. With this excitement comes renewed hope of victory in the world of football handicapping, a sense of invincibility, and a belief that this year will be the most profitable season ever. Often time these feelings lead us to rush things. We play with a sense of urgency and without a sense of bankroll management. Most play big on week 1 for the simple reason that they have not played in six long months. Every game looks so appetizing, all the lines seem soft and every play appears to be a sure winner. What we forget is that for the first time, in a long time there is "next week". While most gamble on football with a sense of urgency and quick moves, much like checkers your selections should be well thought out, pre planned, extensively researched moves - like chess. The goal is not to double jump your opponent and bank a bunch of units early. Rather the object is to move forward slowly and strategically position yourself to attack the bookies week in and week out and show a tidy profit at the end of the year. The rush that an individual gets from this activity is often indescribable. Both the highs of victory and lows of defeat are heart-pumping emotions that many cant resist. But, in the long run, coming out with the bigger bankroll come season's end is what we should strive for. This time of season we should look to remind ourselves that short-term gains should not be a goal in this game. Play slowly, play wisely, and utilize cautious aggression when making your plays and look to reap the rewards at seasons end and not necessarily days end. No matter what your approach is, whether you study your games week in and week out, you follow a respected handicapping service, or you follow a few fellows on the internets sports posting forums - heck you could even follow Jimmy Kimmel - the key is to try to be consistent with how you make your plays and strive for that one day at season's end when you call your offshore account manager request a pay out and yell out "check mate!" Set up your bankroll properly. Get multiple outs to line shop. Find trusted sources for information and always play within your means. The odds makers are there to take your money. The books do their homework. They know how the game of chess works. They have all their pieces in place. If you try to beat them playing checkers - the game is over before the first move - its inevitable. Play with patience and exhibit some football handicapping management. Enjoy the 2002/2003 season and Good Luck! Article courtesy Frank Alulio lead handicapper at Stictly Sports Winners
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The F-T-S of Handicapping by William D. Foote We speak often about fundamental handicapping, situational handicapping, and technical handicapping. For those that happen to be new, here is a brief explanation. The fundamentals refer to how a team matches up against another team. For example, if Team A has a dominating running game in football and Team B has trouble stopping the run; Team A holds a fundamental advantage over Team B. Situational handicapping is all about assessing motivation, let down factors, scheduling, etc. An example would be as follows; Team A is off an emotional OT win against a hated opponent. Team A must now travel across country to play an inferior opponent. Team A has another Big Rivalry Game on deck. Team A would be a great situational play against because of a potential let down, because of travel, and because of a possible look ahead. Technical handicapping deals with trends. In other words, how Team A has faired against Team B in the past, or how Team A has faired ATS at home, or how Team A has faired ATS over their last 10 games, etc. For example; Team A is playing at home and is favored by 7 against Team B. Team A has won the past 10 meetings straight up and ATS vs. Team B. Team A also has won their last 7 ATS overall and 8 in a row ATS at home. Team B has dropped 6 in a row as an underdog and 3 in a row on the road. In this instance, Team A holds a significant technical edge. It is always a wise idea to consider all three aspects when breaking down a game. Sure there are handicappers whom fancy themselves a technician or a fundamentalist, etc. We do not adhere to the single minded approach however and believe firmly that to be a complete handicapper; one must factor in all three aspects.

SportsHandicappers and oddsmakers have very different opinions when it comes to the importance of injuries in the NFL. Some believe that this is one of the most crucial factors that goes into picking a game or setting a line, while others insist that the NFL is full of so many talented players that there isn't that big of a drop off in talent from first-string to second-string. One thing is for certain: injuries do affect the way lines are set in the NFL and there are certain advantages bettors can gain from knowing how oddsmakers factor injuries into their lines and how the general betting public bets into those lines when making plays based on key injuries. When players who play at the ‘skill'positions -- RB, WR or QB –are hurt, this will usually affect the line more than players in who line up in the ‘non-glamour positions.'But injuries on the offensive or defensive lines or in the secondary can have as big of an effect on the outcome of a game as a missing WR or RB. “Injuries to linemen, defensive backs and such can have a big effect on a game but they do not sway public opinion as much as injuries to quarterbacks, running backs or wide receivers where teams are often deeper in talent because of the star appeal of these positions,”said Rob Gillespie, president of BoDog Sportsbook & Casino. “When these injuries pile up and teams are forced to start third stringers, there may be opportunity for bettors. Injuries are one of the last factors we look at when setting a line, as each has to be evaluated on its own merit. ” When uniformed bettors see that a star QB is listed as questionable for a particular game, they may be quick to bet on the other side not realizing that the player's status is already factored into the line. But a key injury to a star cornerback may not be a dynamic for the oddsmaker in setting a line. But his replacement may be undersized or a rookie and may have the propensity to get burned all day by the opposing QB and WRs. Since these kinds of injuries do not sway the opinions of the general public, the line is usually not affected and the savvy bettor can use this to his advantage. “For the public, when they see a star player go out, they overreact and go jump on the other side, especially in football,”commented Scott Epstein, sportsbook manager for Binion's Horseshoe. “If it's not a big star or a name player, it's not going to affect the line that much. If you were to have a couple offensive linemen out, it is probably going to affect the ‘total'more than the ‘sides.'” Epstein is one of the believers that injuries in the NFL are not that significant unless they involve superstars. He thinks that the talent level across all NFL rosters is fairly consistent. “I believe some of the backups and even third-string (players) can play just as well as the starters,”he said. “In the NFL it is just about who can last longer without (injuries).” Gillespie believes that it is less a case of talent, and more a matter of preparation. “On many teams and at many positions there is no drop off with a backup and in most cases I would say it is a matter of preparation,”he said. “If a player practices with the starting unit all week, they will generally be close to the level of the player they are replacing. If the injury comes late in the week, and the replacement has been on the second team or scout team, then they will not be as prepared to play and the drop off may be more noticeable. This is why injuries during a game can have such a dramatic effect but then be non-factors the next week. That being said, going from a Randy Moss to a Nate Burleson would have a dramatic effect.” The San Francisco QB situation is a good example of this philosophy. During the 49ers/Cardinals game on Oct. 26, Niners QB Jeff Garcia left the game at one point with a sprained ankle. Backup Tim Rattay entered the game for a couple of series and was basically ineffective. The following week, however, Garcia was still out with the same injury and his backup had a full week to prepare. Rattay wound up throwing for 236 yards and three touchdowns in a blowout win over St. Louis. Because the injury involved a big-name QB, sportsbooks in Las Vegas and overseas scrambled to come up with a new number that would reflect the loss of Garcia. It turns out Rattay was a capable replacement and the following week still-lingering injury to Garcia didn't play into the line at most shops when the Niners played Pittsburgh on Monday night. Binion's, for example, originally had the line for the St. Louis game posted at –3 in favor of the Rams. The injury to Garcia, at first, did not seem to be that serious and it looked like he may have been able to start the game. When that looked more unlikely mid-week, the sportsbook had to rearrange its line. “It was a bad mistake on our part, because (Rattay) did play so well,”said Epstein. “We already had our parlay cards printed up and we had the Rams at –3. But after (Rattay was named the starter), the Rams went to –4 ? or –5 everywhere so we pulled it off the cards and put it back up on the board at –4 ?.” Evidently, the public wasn't too excited about the Rams at that number and his parlay card business suffered as a result. “Everybody, of course, wanted to play the Rams at –3 on the parlay cards,”he added. “They would have all lost and the house ended up losing money on that. It's real hard to determine what these backup quarterbacks are going to do unless they have already been starters. But when you have a guy like Rattay, who has just come in with minimal experience, its hard to handicap and you automatically have to make them a bigger ‘dog'then the team would have been with (Garcia).”
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