Букмекерская контора Bwin (Bwin)
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Наша компания предлагает крупнейшую в Европе линию ставок на спортивные события и является лидером в этой области. Вам нужны цифры? Мы предлагаем до 5 000 ставок ежедневно более чем на 50 видов спорта – и это также является рекордом. Еще одно непревзойденное достижение: вся наша линия ставок предлагается на 20 различных языках. И мы не собираемся останавливаться на достигнутом!
Baseball season is here and in early season baseball there are many valuable underdogs. Baseball is different from most other popular sports because the vast majority of wagering is based on money lines. "moneyline" wagering means the odds are fixed on a $100 betting unit. For example, if a team is listed as a -$180 favorite, that means you must lay $180 to win back $100 in profit. Conversely, if a team is listed as a +$160 underdog. That means you bet $100, you win back $160 profit if the dog wins.
In baseball betting, it's not necessary to pick more winners than losers in order to make a profit. That might sound strange, but truth is, paying attention to moneyline prices and identifying line values is much more important in baseball handicapping. For instance, let's say you play two underdogs both listed at +$140. Even if you split, with one win and one loss, your net result will be a profit of $40. It's conceivable that a baseball bettor could pick more losers then winners, but still make money (by picking underdogs)
However, lets say you bet on two favorites listed at -$150. If you split with one win and one loss, your net result would be a loss of $50. It's conceivable that a baseball bettor could pick more winners than losers, but still lose money (by picking too many favorites)
Generally as a rule I rarely bet favorites and when I do I never lay more then -140. There are several reasons you should seek out the dogs, especially in the early season. The start of the season everyone starts out in first place. All teams start out with a lot of enthusiasm. All are motivated to win. This generally favors the weaker teams, getting the moneyline bonus as underdogs. Most teams are healthy. So injuries are not yet a factor, at least until later in the season. If two healthy teams are playing, the team getting the value (the dog) deserves a look.
Pitching staffs are fresh. Starters have not worked more then four to five innings per start in spring training. Fresh starters and bullpens that are moneyline underdogs are often the better value since any major league pitcher is capable of shutting down an opponent and pitching a good game. Home teams enjoy less of an advantage in baseball then any other sport. This is especially true of early season games, since the surroundings are "new" for both teams, following two months of spring training in Florida or Arizona.
Lines are based on old information, including last years results. As we know from history, teams can and do change from one year to the next. With dogs we get back a bonus (better then even money payoff) on many games that are very close to being a toss up. Going against teams like the yanks who will be 2-1 favorite or more almost every day is one thing I will be doing. Especially out of the gate when public money will be pouring in on them. I have done very well over the years taking back +200 or more betting against big name pitchers like Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, and my number one bet against man Roger Clemons.
Having a lot of different options where to play is always a must. I really feel I have so many outs (places to bet) I can play baseball with virtually no juice throughout the year. Keep a close eye on the underdog prices at books like Bodog and Vwager and you will be very happy with the nice value the have. Good luck!
It seems like all we are waiting for now is the traditional coin flip; and we all know that seems like it takes forever. Football season is indeed just around the corner and while some have been preparing for months already, others are just waiting for the outs to post lines so they can take a quick look at what they like and risk a few dollars.
Whatever your motivation, whether you play for the recreation, you seriously try to make a few extra bucks or you are the few that play for a living, there is one thing that is common to all that step onto the football handicapping field. "The game is Chess, Not Checkers"
What does this mean? In short, no matter what your motivation for gambling on football is, you want to enjoy the entire season. From the first preseason game, to the bowl games, through Super Bowl weekend, nothing could be worse then having an empty bankroll come October.
As children growing up, most of us were quickly able to learn how to play checkers. It was quick, exciting, and fast paced. Few however, took the time, had the patience or desire to play the snail paced, strategic game of chess. It seemed daunting, un-rewarding and often times not exciting at all. If we think of gambling in this context we quickly realize that most handicap and gamble the "checkers" way as opposed to the "chess" way.
The excitement that opening weekend brings is unmatched year in and year out. With this excitement comes renewed hope of victory in the world of football handicapping, a sense of invincibility, and a belief that this year will be the most profitable season ever. Often time these feelings lead us to rush things. We play with a sense of urgency and without a sense of bankroll management. Most play big on week 1 for the simple reason that they have not played in six long months. Every game looks so appetizing, all the lines seem soft and every play appears to be a sure winner.
What we forget is that for the first time, in a long time there is "next week". While most gamble on football with a sense of urgency and quick moves, much like checkers your selections should be well thought out, pre planned, extensively researched moves - like chess.
The goal is not to double jump your opponent and bank a bunch of units early. Rather the object is to move forward slowly and strategically position yourself to attack the bookies week in and week out and show a tidy profit at the end of the year.
The rush that an individual gets from this activity is often indescribable. Both the highs of victory and lows of defeat are heart-pumping emotions that many cant resist. But, in the long run, coming out with the bigger bankroll come season's end is what we should strive for. This time of season we should look to remind ourselves that short-term gains should not be a goal in this game. Play slowly, play wisely, and utilize cautious aggression when making your plays and look to reap the rewards at seasons end and not necessarily days end.
No matter what your approach is, whether you study your games week in and week out, you follow a respected handicapping service, or you follow a few fellows on the internets sports posting forums - heck you could even follow Jimmy Kimmel - the key is to try to be consistent with how you make your plays and strive for that one day at season's end when you call your offshore account manager request a pay out and yell out "check mate!"
Set up your bankroll properly. Get multiple outs to line shop. Find trusted sources for information and always play within your means. The odds makers are there to take your money. The books do their homework. They know how the game of chess works. They have all their pieces in place. If you try to beat them playing checkers - the game is over before the first move - its inevitable. Play with patience and exhibit some football handicapping management. Enjoy the 2002/2003 season and Good Luck!
Article courtesy Frank Alulio lead handicapper at Stictly Sports Winners
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The F-T-S of Handicapping by William D. Foote
We speak often about fundamental handicapping, situational handicapping, and technical handicapping. For those that happen to be new, here is a brief explanation.
The fundamentals refer to how a team matches up against another team. For example, if Team A has a dominating running game in football and Team B has trouble stopping the run; Team A holds a fundamental advantage over Team B.
Situational handicapping is all about assessing motivation, let down factors, scheduling, etc. An example would be as follows; Team A is off an emotional OT win against a hated opponent. Team A must now travel across country to play an inferior opponent. Team A has another Big Rivalry Game on deck. Team A would be a great situational play against because of a potential let down, because of travel, and because of a possible look ahead.
Technical handicapping deals with trends. In other words, how Team A has faired against Team B in the past, or how Team A has faired ATS at home, or how Team A has faired ATS over their last 10 games, etc. For example; Team A is playing at home and is favored by 7 against Team B. Team A has won the past 10 meetings straight up and ATS vs. Team B. Team A also has won their last 7 ATS overall and 8 in a row ATS at home. Team B has dropped 6 in a row as an underdog and 3 in a row on the road. In this instance, Team A holds a significant technical edge.
It is always a wise idea to consider all three aspects when breaking down a game. Sure there are handicappers whom fancy themselves a technician or a fundamentalist, etc. We do not adhere to the single minded approach however and believe firmly that to be a complete handicapper; one must factor in all three aspects.